The assembly election in Gujarat is likely to shape the future course of Indian politics: It is going to test the Congress’s resolve towards electoral revival, show whether the Aam Aadmi Party’s attempt to expand its footprint is yielding results and whether Brand Modi and Hindutva remain valuable electoral capital for the BJP. Of course, caste-based social engineering is all too prevalent in Gujarat. However, there are a set of factors related to emotional connections that play an important role in influencing election outcomes.The first such factor is “Brand Modi”. The image of PM Modi is synonymous with Gujarati pride. His presence as the prime minister has created a sub-nationalist assertion within the broader framework of Indian nationalism in Gujarat. This emotional thread is going to shape the election outcome more than any organisational or party-centred efforts. The image of Modi is omnipresent — in the media, in rallies, and imprinted on development initiatives promoted by the Centre. It is talked about in the tribal areas of the Dangs as well as in cosmopolitan cities including Ahmedabad and Vadodara. The narrative around Brand Modi has been contested by the Opposition, of course, but it hardly figures in the conversation or does not seem powerful enough to dent the electoral capital it has generated.A second factor is the “Hindutva aspiration” that provides an emotional basis for political connection. The BJP’s efforts to enhance Hindu pride by constructing the Ram temple in Ayodhya, renovation of the Kashi-Vishwanath temple corridor, and other mega symbols of Hindutva pride have a resonance on the ground. The BJP’s ability to do cultural politics is unmatched; its impact in reshaping hearts and minds is often ignored by political analysts. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal seems to have recognised the import of this aspect, which is evident in his attempts to carve out a niche within this space by demanding that currency notes carry images of Hindu deities, Lakshmi and Ganesha. However, for cultural politics around Hindutva symbols to work, mere hyperbolic assertions are not enough; continuous and deep groundwork is needed for the claims and slogans to sound authentic.A third invisible factor is the political kinship within the cooperative movement. Politics and the cooperative movement were always connected. However, the BJP has now replaced the Congress as the dominant player in the cooperative movement, which provides cadres and influencers to political parties. The BJP rose in Gujarat by weakening the Congress’s influence among the cooperatives. As the Union minister for cooperatives, Amit Shah has been engaging with producers, the market and mandi.A fourth factor that is enabling electoral mobilisations is linked to aspirations — one related to development and the other to dhanda (business). All political parties compete to tap these aspirations but the BJP, by projecting itself as the party of government through its rhetoric on “double-engine”, has been way ahead of its rivals. The AAP is an opening for newcomers interested in a political career — most civil society activists see their political future in it. In fact, civil society actors are helping the AAP build the party organisation. The BJP and Hindutva groups too have made deep inroads among NGOs and sewabhavi groups. Interestingly, the AAP seems to be winning over Congress sympathisers. Earlier, the impression was that the rise of AAP would hurt the BJP.A strong party organisation is necessary to mobilise people around these factors. The BJP political machine is more powerful and efficient than any other. It is good at pooling resources and using all the inputs at its disposal to maximise outcomes. A good mix of seasoned organisers and mass leaders run the party election machine and the campaign. In contrast, the AAP campaign is focused on Arvind Kejriwal while the Congress campaign revolves around state leaders. The absence of Rahul Gandhi in the campaign is mentioned by Congress cadres and sympathisers. The BJP has sought to diminish the anti-incumbency sentiment by replacing a large number of sitting MLAs, including senior leaders.However, elections have a logic of their own and are prone to throw up small and big surprises. In Gujarat, what factors influence the outcome are worth watching.The writer is professor, Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad
These Gujarat politicians have been victorious not merely in elections, but also in earning the confidence of generations of voters. Himanshu Kaushik profiles leaders who have won more than three assembly polls since the state was carved out over 60 years ago. Mohansinh Rathava (10):This septuagenarian tribal strongman won his first assembly election in 1972. He represented the ST-reserved Jetpur and Chhota Udepur seats for 10 consecutive elections on Congress tickets. Earlier this month he joined the BJP. His son Rajendrasinh has received the BJP ticket for the 2022 poll. Rathava’s record of 10 assembly-election wins is unsurpassed. (Won: 1972, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2012, 2017) Ashok Bhatt (8):Ashok Bhatt, who held key positions in successive BJP governments, won polls eight times from his citadel, Khadia in Ahmedabad’s old city. His first victory came in 1975 and he handled several portfolios through his career. In 2008, he was appointed the assembly speaker and held that post till his death in 2010. His son Bhushan lacks Bhatt’s Midas touch, losing once from Khadia. (Won: 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007) Stalwarts with 7 winsChhotu Vasava:A fiery leader of the Bhil tribal community, Vasava, 77, is looking for his eighth straight win from the Jhagadia seat in Bharuch district, which he has represented from 1990 either on a JD or BTP ticket. Vasava has been a fierce advocate of rights of tribal communities and his fief has remained unbreachable for over three decades. (Won: 1990, 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017) Pabubha Manek:This 66-year-old Mer community strongman is perhaps the only MLA to have won the Dwarka constituency as Congress, BJP, and independent candidate. He is seeking his eighth consecutive stint from the same seat. He was disqualified in 2019 by the HC for improper election affidavit. (Won: 1990, 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017) Amarsinh Chaudhary:Gujarat’s first adivasi CM, Chaudhary headed the state government between 1985 and 1989. He quit a government job to win his first assembly election in 1970. He represented Radhanpur, Khedbrahma, and Vyara seats. Chaudhary also led the state unit of the Congress. He died in 2004. His son Tushar has been fielded from Khedbrahma by the Congress. (Won: 1972, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1995, 1998, 2002) Keshubhai Patel:The Patidar leader from Saurashtra won seven elections beginning 1975. His victories came on the tickets of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh and the BJP, as well as on that of the Gujarat Parivartan Party which he founded in 2012. A member of the RSS since the 1940s. Patel was instrumental in the growth of the BJP in Gujarat. He was the CM twice. He succumbed to Covid complications at 92. (Won: 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2012) Vajubhai Vala:He was made the Rajkot mayor in the 1980s. He won his first assembly election in 1985 from Rajkot and never lost. He vacated the seat in 2002 to pave the way for Narendra Modi to contest his first assembly election. Vala, 75, has been a minister and the speaker. He was made Karnataka’s governor in 2014. (Won: 1985, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012) Victory streak over 6 pollsMadhavsinh Solanki:He ran the KHAM (Kshatriya Harijan Adivasi Muslim) social experiment in the state. He has been the CM and a central minister. His 1985 feat of leading the Congress to win 149 of the 182 seats remains unbroken. (Won: 1962, 1972, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990) Vitthal Radadiya:He won assembly polls six times and general elections twice. He represented Dhoraji in the assembly and Porbandar in the Lok Sabha. He moved from the BJP to the RJP to the Congress and again to the BJP. He died in 2019 of cancer. (Won: 1990, 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012) Nitin Patel:He has been winning assembly elections since 1995 and has been a sixterm MLA. He has held several positions in successive BJP governments, including the post of deputy CM under Vijay Rupani. (Won: 1990, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2012, 2017) Mangubhai Patel:Beginning 1990, the tribal leader from south Gujarat won six consecutive assembly elections. While he won five times from Navsari, he entered the assembly for the sixth time from Gandevi. Patel held several portfolios in BJP governments and was the speaker too. He is now the MP governor. (Won: 1990, 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012) Madhu Shrivastava:He is contesting as an independent candidate this time after being denied a ticket by the BJP. He has a sizable personal following in Vadodara and the surrounding areas and has been winning since 1995. Shrivastava’s combative style often ignites controversies, but has resulted in no major setback. (Won: 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017) Prevailing in 5 fightsAmit Shah:Union home minister Amit Shah has been camping in Gujarat for the past several weeks to oversee the BJP’s poll campaign. Born in Mumbai in 1964, he spent his childhood in his ancestral town of Mansa. He has been elected to the assembly from Sarkhej and Naranpura. He contested his first Lok Sabha election in 2019 from the prestigious Gandhinagar constituency. (Won: 1997 bypoll, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012) Chimanbhai Patel:He was the CM of both Congress and Janata Dal governments in different tenures. He is credited with successfully engineering the Kokam (Koli Kanbi Musim) social experiment to ride into power. Patel won assembly elections from Sankheda and Unjha. He died in 1994. (Won: 1967, 1972, 1980, 1985, 1990) Nimaben Acharya:Barring the 1998 assembly election, Acharya has won all her fights since 1995. A Kutch native, she has been a successful candidate for both the Congress and the BJP. She and her husband switched over from the Congress to the BJP in 2007. Acharya became the first woman speaker in September last year. She has not received the BJP ticket this time. (Won: 1995, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017) Champions 4 timesNarendra Modi:He contested his first election in February 2002 from Rajkot-II after being sworn in as the CM in October 2001. He won 2002, 2007, and 2012 assembly polls from Maninagar. His 14-year tenure as the CM is the longest in Gujarat. In 2014, he won Varanasi and Vadodara Lok Sabha seats and became the PM. In the 2019 general election, Varanasi reelected him. (Won: 2002 bypoll, 2002, 2007 and 2012) Anandiben Patel:She is the governor of Uttar Pradesh. She has won four assembly elections from Mandal, Patan, and Ghatlodia seats. She became the state’s first woman CM after Modi became the PM. She was replaced in the face of the Patidar reservation agitation. (Won: 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012)
The AIMIM will field 14 candidates in the upcoming Gujarat Assembly polls.New Delhi: Soon after Union Home Minister Amit Shah at a Gujarat election rally made his controversial "taught a lesson to rioters in 2002" comment, All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi lashed out at him, saying his 'lessons' were in fact about letting criminals walk free.While addressing a public gathering at Juhapura, the largest Muslim neighbourhood in Gujarat, the AIMIM chief said, "Amit Shah today gave a statement during a public rally that they taught a lesson to the rioters of Gujarat in 2002 and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) established permanent peace in the state. I want to tell the MP of this (Ahmedabad) constituency, Amit Shah, that the lesson you taught in 2002 was that Bilkis' rapists will be freed by you. The lesson you taught was that you will free the murderers of Bilkis' three-year-old daughter. You also taught us that Ahsan Jafri can be killed."In an impassioned speech, he also referred to the Gulbarg Society massacre, and the burning down of the Best Bakery in the 2002 communal frenzy that claimed over a thousand lives."How many of your lessons should we remember, Mr Amit Shah? But remember, teaching lessons is nothing, peace is strengthened when the wronged are given justice," he said.2002 mein Kaunsa sabaq sikhaya tha @amitshah? Naroda Patiya ka sabaq? Gulberg ka sabaq? Best Bakery ka sabaq? Bilqis Bano ka sabaq? pic.twitter.com/aV3hWC2Ab4— Asaduddin Owaisi (@asadowaisi) November 25, 2022Taking aim at the Home Minister, Mr Owaisi said that people forget when they get power that it has never always been with anyone. "Power will never be with any one person. One day, power will be snatched from everyone. Drunk on power, the Home Minister is today saying that we taught a lesson. What lesson did you teach? You became notorious in the entire country. What lesson did you teach that there were communal riots in Delhi?" he said.Amit Shah had on Thursday said that those responsible for the communal riots in Gujarat were "taught such a lesson" that the state has been peaceful for 22 years."During the Congress rule in Gujarat (before 1995), communal riots were rampant. Congress used to incite people of different communities and castes to fight against each other. Through such riots, Congress had strengthened its vote bank and did injustice to a large section of the society," Mr Shah said in Mahudha town of Kheda district."There have been many riots in Bharuch, curfew, violence. There was no room for development in Gujarat because of the chaos. In 2002, they tried to indulge in communal violence... we taught them such a lesson, we put them in jail. It's been 22 years, we have not put a curfew even once. BJP has done the work to bring the peace to a land that saw frequent communal riots," he said.The AIMIM will field 14 candidates in the upcoming Gujarat Assembly polls.PromotedListen to the latest songs, only on JioSaavn.comThe Gujarat assembly elections are scheduled to be held in two phases on December 1 and 5.Voting for 89 assembly seats will take place in the first phase, while for the remaining 93 assembly seats, voting will be held in the second phase of polling.
AHMEDABAD: Union home minister Amit Shah has claimed that BJP will win the coming Gujarat elections by a record margin, surpassing its previous best performances - both in terms of seats and vote share. "We shall break all our past records and and return to office once again with a thumping majority," Shah said. In an exclusive conversation with TOI here, Shah identified PM Narendra Modi's popularity and performance of the BJP governments as the main reasons for his confidence. He said while Modi enjoys goodwill everywhere, people of Gujarat share a special bond with him and that has grown stronger because of his performance as the PM. Battle of Gujarat is between Congress and BJP, says Amit ShahRead Also‘Gujarat’s bond with Modi has grown stronger because of his work… will help BJP win again’Union home minister Amit Shah, who has been campaigning extensively in Gujarat, is confident that the performance of successive BJP governments in the state and the growing affection for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will help BJP score an easy win there. In an exclusive conversation with TOI’sThe home minister dismissed the risk of "anti-incumbency" hurting BJP, which has been in office in Gujarat for 27 years now. "Our track record speaks for itself," he said, adding "pro-incumbency" is the dominant sentiment in the state. He noted that many issues BJP has raised since its Jan Sangh days have been resolved by the Modi government. Making light of AAP's challenge, Shah said BJP's fight in the Gujarat polls was still with Congress, which despite its problems consistently held on to a sizeable vote share in the state. The home minister was confident that AAP's 'politics of freebies' would not wash with Gujarat voters.
AHMEDABAD: Union home minister Amit Shah has claimed that BJP will win the coming Gujarat elections by a record margin, surpassing its previous best performances - both in terms of seats and vote share. "We shall break all our past records and and return to office once again with a thumping majority," Shah said. In an exclusive conversation with TOI in Ahmedabad, Shah identified PM Narendra Modi's popularity and performance of the BJP governments as the main reasons for his confidence. He said while Modi enjoys goodwill everywhere, people in Gujarat share a special bond with him and that has grown stronger because of his performance as the PM. The home minister dismissed the risk of "anti-incumbency" hurting BJP, which has been in office in Gujarat for 27 years now. "Our track record speaks for itself," he said, adding "pro-incumbency" is the dominant sentiment in the state. He noted that many issues BJP has raised since its Jan Sangh days have been resolved by the Modi government. Making light of AAP's challenge, Shah said BJP's fight in the Gujarat polls was still with Congress, which despite its problems has consistently held on to a sizeable vote-share in the state. The home minister was confident that AAP's 'politics of freebies' would not wash with Gujarat voters.
Questioning the “repeated trips” made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to Gujarat, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot said he had never seen such high anti-incumbency, as seen in the poll-bound state.Addressing an election meeting in Ahmedabad, the “Prime Minister has left all work in Delhi — which is his main job — and is here in Gujarat. What is the need for him to make repeated trips. Both Prime Minister and (home minister) Amit Shah are camping in the state.”Gehlot was speaking at Dariapur in Ahmedabad where sitting MLA Gyasuddin Sheikh is contesting.“You all are seeing what they are talking about in their speeches,” he said adding that unemployment and inflation were adversely affecting people in Gujarat. “I have never seen such high anti-incumbency, as I am seeing now in Gujarat. People are opposing them. They are not going to their meetings, because they have not done any work in the last five years,” the Rajasthan CM said adding that the BJP was forced to change its entire Cabinet last year.The Rajasthan CM said the anti-incumbency wave is bigger than 2017 elections, when congress fell a few seats short of forming the government in Gujarat. “If Congress wins this election, the Centre and Modji will get a shock. They will realise that they have lost due to high inflation and they will take steps to reduce prices. The entire country will benefit,” Gehlot said.“In Gujarat, Congress MLAs win. Thereafter horse trading happens and they are taken into BJP. This never used to happen earlier. After Modiji became the prime minister, a new model has come in the country, where elected governments are made to fall— Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka. These are dangers for democracy,” he said. Gehlot pointed out how sitting MLAs have rebelled within the BJP. “They blame the Congress, but they are not able to keep their own house in order.”Gehlot also remembered those who died of hooch tragedy in Ahmedabad and the recent bridge collapse tragedy in Morbi.
The forthcoming Gujarat Assembly polls is set to see many key contests, but the one for minority votes is rather tepid, with major political parties circumspect about fielding Muslim candidates, as always. The Muslim community, which forms approximately nine per cent of the total population of Gujarat, says in one voice that it is “unexcited” about the polls, as “none of the parties” has ever lived up to their pre-poll promises or reached out to the community.This time, across the 182 constituencies, the Congress has fielded only six Muslim candidates — a figure it has not crossed since 2002. The BJP — which even has a Christian candidate in the fray after two decades, from the Vyara constituency — last fielded a Muslim candidate in 1998 from the Vagra Assembly seat, unsuccessfully. The new entrant, Aam Aadmi Party, has fielded three Muslims, while the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has fielded 11 Muslim candidates out of a total 13 nominations. There are, of course, several Independent candidates from the community, who are expected to dent the vote share primarily of the Congress party.The Muslim votebank, traditionally associated with the Congress, has seen diminishing importance in the Assembly polls in Gujarat, and thereby, also a disproportionate lack of representation in the Assembly. In 2017, three of the six candidates fielded by the Congress made it to the Gujarat Assembly, while only two out of five were elected in 2012. The Congress, which had fielded 10 Muslim candidates in 1995, has slowly distanced itself from issues pertaining to minorities, barring their elected representatives from the community, who continue to be vocal in registering their opposition to issues that matter to the community.A senior Congress leader says, “One cannot deny that in the current political scenario, the Congress has to counter the BJP’s Hindutva politics, which includes them calling the Congress an anti-Hindu party. It is natural that the party has become conscious and prudent about its image.”He adds, “Not fielding Muslim candidates is not a part of this conscious image change, though. Right from 1990, the winnability of Muslim candidates came up for question. In fact, in 1995, all 10 Muslim candidates of the Congress lost. In 1998, five of our nine candidates won. So, in 2002, only the winners were repeated…”Earlier this year, Congress had elevated Wankaner MLA Mohammad Pirzada as the working president of the party’s Gujarat unit, while Congress president Jagdish Thakor reached out to the minorities with a Congress catchphrase that the party believed in the minorities having the first right over the country’s resources.The AAP, which has also held a roadshow in minority areas of Ahmedabad, has fielded three Muslim candidates, but for the community, the “connection” is missing.A community leader from Godhra says, “No political leader tried to meet Bilkis Bano to just extend moral support or guidance after the remission was granted to her 11 convicted rapists. None of the non-Muslim leaders of any party spoke against the recent Undhela flogging controversy. Being associated with Muslim issues would dent their own political narratives that have been prepared to counter the BJP’s Hindutva card. In fact, even in pockets with the highest Muslim population, candidates need votes of the Hindus to win, and for parties, the calculations are based on cutting their losses.”Socio-political activist Zuber Gopalani says Muslim voters feel “no enthusiasm” ahead of the Assembly polls as political parties increasingly appear to mimic each other. He says, “The community is undecided this time… Initially, AAP’s entry had raised hopes of an alternative, but frankly, Arvind Kejriwal’s emphasis on religious symbolism and religion-laced comments have left Muslims confused. So, at this moment, we have the BJP that is riding on Hindutva and AAP, which appears to be its shadow, with Kejriwal making covert references to (the Hindu) religion, such as demanding pictures of Hindu gods on currency notes. And there is the Congress, which is nowhere to be seen, nor has it done anything substantial to endear itself to the minorities. In fact, everybody knows that their leaders jump to the BJP at the first available opportunity.”An activist from Godhra, requesting anonymity, says the Muslim community, which has largely stood by sitting five-term MLA C K Raulji, has “lost faith” in him, after the remission to the Bilkis convicts. Raulji was part of the Jail Advisory Committee (JAC) that recommended the release. The activist says, “When C K Raulji joined the BJP in 2017, his winning margin fell to just 258 votes. It is because he betrayed the faith that Muslims had placed in him, not only by joining the BJP, but by also making acerbic statements… Now, after being part of a panel that granted the remission, he has even made statements in which he has invoked the caste of the convicts to defend them. That’s his mindset.”For BJP leaders, not fielding Muslim candidates is a “non-issue”. A senior BJP leader said, “According to the party ideology, we work for all communities. Anyone can approach government leaders at any time. The party does not feel the need to field Muslim candidates as appeasement is not part of PM Narendra Modi’s agenda — we have been saying this even in our campaign. Where we have support from the Muslim community, voters vote for development and not for a candidate belonging to their religion.”According to Gopalani, while the AAP promises of schools and healthcare is attractive, their party is “too new”. He says, “We are yet to see how well they can carry forward good governance in the years ahead, especially education and healthcare, as the AAP is now venturing into unchartered territories. The promises are attractive but that cannot be the sole reason to choose them, although, one cannot deny that some voters might be attracted to vote for AAP, thereby denting the Congress numbers.”The absence of strong Muslim political leaders in the state is hurting the community. Gopalani, a close aide of Ahmed Patel, says, “The community is especially angered by the Congress because it has actively pitted strong community leaders against each other and divided the voices that would otherwise come out in unison… One would think that the presence of more parties and candidates offers a choice, but it’s actually detrimental, as it would completely dilute the minority votes and make them ineffective. There is a dearth of powerful Muslim leaders, who could assure someone seeking justice, and also deliver on the assurance using their legislative clout, especially after the departure of Congress leader Ahmed Patel… The community feels this political void. There is no face, no name, and no person to turn to in a crisis, and this is true for all parties. Forget representation in the Assembly, minority leaders — be it Muslims, Christians, Sikhs or from any other religion — were not even part of the recent function to release the Congress manifesto.”The AIMIM, which has been pitching itself as defenders of Muslims and Dalits in this Assembly election — even adopting the slogan of ‘Jai Bheem, Jai Meem’ — has 11 Muslims and two Dalits in the fray. In AIMIM’s campaigns, chief Asaduddin Owaisi and his Gujarat head Sabir Kabliwala have been invoking the Bilkis Bano remission, political neglect of Zakia Jafri, Uniform Civil Code, and the Disturbed Areas Act. But, the party has steadily lost elected representatives since their much-hyped victories in the local civic body elections in February 2021. Those who have quit the party blame a lack of transparency and indecisiveness of the Gujarat leadership. Additionally, some within the party-fold also opine that merely focusing on Muslim or Dalit issues does not tend to work out on the ground.For Muslims, AIMIM also does not have an unique appeal. “The party has no understanding of local issues. Some might vote for their candidates purely on religious grounds, but it lacks the stability and presence to make an impact… Currently, the Muslim voter is waiting for that elusive leader from the community in the state, who is nowhere in sight,” the activist adds.
The postal voting for government employees on election duty in Ahmedabad, which includes the personnel of the Gujarat police, home guards and others, will be held on November 25 and 26.The polling will be held from 9 am to 5 pm on both days. In Ahmedabad district, arrangements have been made at police headquarters Shahibaug for the city police. Similar facilities have also been created at Krushnagar.For rural police in the district, facilities have been created at Makarba, Dholka and Viramgam.Meanwhile, a day before the postal voting, Isudan Gadhvi, the chief ministerial candidate of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), took to Twitter to remind the state government employees about the party’s promises, including bringing back the old pension scheme, increasing the pay grade of various government workers and regularisation of various temporary and outsourced workers.
Gujarat has been the BJP's stronghold for nearly three decades. (Representational)Ahmedabad: The mass suspension of rebels in Gujarat -- the BJP's stronghold for nearly three decades -- has failed to contain the trouble a week ahead of the assembly election. Late this evening, another leader resigned from the party. Bhanu Bhai Chauhan -- BJP vice-president of Jamnagar district and a leader of the Other Backward Castes -- is alleging that the party is ignoring the demands of community.So far, the BJP has penalised 19 MLAs. The list includes a six-time MLA and two former MLAs. All have got six-year suspensions from primary membership of the party.The mass uprising started after the BJP refused tickets to nearly one-third of its MLAs.While the party routinely evaluates its MLAs and gives tickets on basis on performance, this time it is under pressure to find seats for multiple Congress leaders who have changed camp.But with many of the rebels filing nomination as Independents, the BJP candidates will face them in at least 10 per cent of the 182 seats. Many of the rebels are contesting from their own constituency -- areas they have dominated for several terms. In some sections of the party there is concern that this may lead to a further paring down of the party's numbers. Over the last years, the BJP numbers have been steadily shrinking. From 137 in 2002, the party is now down to 99 MLAs in the 182-member assembly.For the party, this is a huge embarrassment, with Gujarat being the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home minister Amit Shah. Many are complacent though. They argue that the entry of Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM will cut into the votes of the Congress, which had always been the principal opposition party in the state. Even though Mr Kejriwal has pitched himself as the BJP's chief rival, AAP had failed to open account in the last election, point out BJP leaders. PromotedListen to the latest songs, only on JioSaavn.comThose suspended over the last two days include Vaghodia MLA, Madhu Shrivastav, known as a strongman with a rap sheet that includes a case linked to the 2002 riots. Besides, some key leaders of the party have resigned. Among them are former ministers Prabhatsinh Chauhan and Jaynarayan Vyas and several district-level office bearers. Mr Chauhan has joined Congress. So has former Chief Minister Shankarsinh Vaghela's son and former MLA, Mahendrasinh Vaghela.Featured Video Of The DayCongress's Bharat Jodo Yatra vs BJP's March For Tribals In Madhya Pradesh
The community has around 60 lakh eligible voters.Ahmedabad: A top body representing the Maldhari community, who are involved in cattle-rearing in Gujarat, has urged its members to vote against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the next month's state Assembly elections for "failing" to fulfil their long-pending demands.The call was given by the Gujarat Maldhari Mahapanchayat two days ago. Of the nearly 70 lakh members of the community living in parts of Gujarat, around 60 lakh are eligible voters, said Nagji Desai, spokesperson of Maldhari Mahapanchayat."Maldharis across Gujarat are being harassed for the last one-and-a-half years and many cases were also filed against them. Many of our long-pending demands are still unfulfilled under the BJP rule. To teach that party a lesson, the panchayat appeals to our community to vote against BJP this time," Mr Desai said.He was referring to the cases lodged in different cities against Maldharis for letting their cattle roam on roads, which led to accidents and even deaths of commuters.In a statement, Mr Desai also thanked the Congress and its state unit president Jagdish Thakor for supporting the community.Some of the main demands, which were not fulfilled yet, include building exclusive localities for Maldharis to live and keep their cattle to avoid accidents, withdrawing cases against the community and giving status of a farmer to cattle-rearers."Election is the right time to show our might and make our voice heard. After holding consultation with senior community members, the Mahapanchayat gives this call of voting against BJP candidates. If the party's candidate is a Maldhari, then voters are free to choose whom to vote for," said Mr Desai.Voting for 182 seats of Gujarat Assembly will be held in two phases - on December 1 and 5.The Gujarat BJP has not issued any statement in connection with the Maldhari community's call against it.PromotedListen to the latest songs, only on JioSaavn.comMaldharis in Gujarat are up in arms against the BJP ever since the party-led government, brought a bill in April that was aimed at stopping the movement of stray cattle on roads in urban areas. The bill had proposed strict punishment for those found guilty of letting their cattle roam on roads.The Gujarat High Court had criticised the government over the stray cattle menace in the city and asked it to take corrective measures to resolve the issue. However, following a state-wide protest by the Maldhari community, the bill was finally withdrawn in September after Governor Acharya Devvrat returned it for reconsideration.Featured Video Of The DayHave Rahul Gandhi's Looks Become A Poll Issue?
The BJP controls zilla and taluka panchayats and gram panchayats in VaghodiaVaghodia (Gujarat): Two BJP rebels, both pledging to back it if they win and both contesting as independents, are going head to head in this assembly segment, their very support queering the pitch for the ruling party's official candidate.That six-time BJP legislator Madhu Shrivastav, who was replaced by the party's Vadodara district president Ashwin Patel, is one of them makes the saffron party's road to victory in this keenly watched constituency a steeper uphill trudge.Against Shrivastav, whose exclusion from the BJP's electoral fray was a surprise for many, is Dharmendra Sinh Vaghela. In more similarities, the two former party colleagues and opponents have the image of being 'dabangs' (fearless) and 'bahubalis' (strongmen) in the constituency.Though the BJP has put all its might behind its official candidate Patel, the prospect of a vote split is real. The relatively low profile Patel will be fighting the two party rebels and candidates of the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in a multi-cornered contest on December 5 in the second phase of the elections."The BJP is more important than the candidate and we are focussing on ensuring the victory of the official candidate," Utsavbhai Parikh, general secretary of the BJP Kisan Morcha in Vadodara, told PTI.Confident of victory, he said of the 65 per cent Kshatriya voters in Vaghodia, 50 per cent are committed BJP voters."We will suffer 10 to 15 per cent (loss) in terms of votes due to the presence of the rebels. But we are confident of winning," Parikh said.The BJP has also inducted Yogpal Singh Gohil, a well connected Kshatriya leader from the Congress and son of former party legislator Upendra Singh Gohil.In 2017, Madhubhai, as Shrivastav is called in the constituency, defeated Vaghela, known as Bapu, by 10,315 votes. Vaghela then too was a BJP rebel.Five years ago, the Congress did not field a candidate from here and left the seat for the Bharatiya Tribal party (BTP) with whom it had an alliance.Vaghela benefited as a majority of the Kshatriya voters, a deciding factor in Vaghodia, went to him due to the Congress' absence from the poll arena.This time might be different.Shrivastav, who has won six times since 1995, and Vaghela have said they will be with the BJP if they win.The BJP controls zilla and taluka panchayats and gram panchayats in Vaghodia and its leaders say the party's grassroots strength is enough to see it through the hustings.The Congress, on its part, appears upbeat and is hoping to derive maximum advantage from the fractured poll situation.Satyajit Gaikwad, the party's candidate and former MP from Vadodara, said Madhu Shrivastav polled 60,000 votes in 2017 but 1.10 lakh ballots went against him.'The Congress will cash in on the split in BJP votes and the AAP will get just around 1,500 votes this time,' he claimed.The sense on the ground, he said, is that the constituency wants a change this time. The presence of the two rebels will hit the BJP more in his view."Household incomes have depleted, unemployment is on the rise and the pinch of inflation is too much for the people to bear. This angst of the people will be reflected through the ballot," Gaikwad said.Deepak Shrivastav, Madhu Shrivastav's son and a two-time member of the Vadodara Municipal Corporation, said his father is a "people's man" and is sure to emerge victorious for the seventh time."(Poll) symbol doesn't matter, people's work and their welfare is important for him and he will continue to do so. He stood as an independent because people wanted him to contest and they have assured him a win. They are angry as the BJP has not re-nominated him," he said.Madhu Shrivastav's supporters point out that Vaghodia was a Congress bastion breached by him in 1995 when he contested as an independent and won.The BJP had then invited him to join the party. Since then, the veteran legislator has worked to expand the BJP base in the constituency, they said.Patel, a Shrivastav supporter said, is not widely known in Vaghodia, one of the Assembly segments of the Vadodara parliamentary seat and even lost the zilla panchayat election.The party also has to tackle the disillusionment of locals, many of whom cite persisting problems such as power outages and lack of infrastructure."This is a taluka place but even some villages in Gujarat are better developed than Vaghodia. We have the Parul University and Muni Seva Ashram Hospital as well as the Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation here, but there are security issues as CCTVs don't function and frequent power cuts leave streets dark after sunset," said a shopkeeper in his early 30s, wary about giving his name.As the campaigning hots up, fruit vendors Shabbir and Sarfaraz Malik said the main fight will be between Patel and Madhu Shrivastav.Mitesh Patel, a member of Vaghela's campaign team, said his man is in a better position in the 2022 polls after losing by 10,000 votes in 2017."We are focusing on Kshatriya votes. Bapu has varied businesses in Vadodara and provides employment to locals. Many Kshatriya community members from the BJP Yuva Morcha and Mahila Morcha are joining Bapu,' he said.The AAP doesn't figure prominently in the electoral discourse in the constituency.Seven candidates are in the fray in Vaghodia, located on the outskirts of Vadodara city. It is an industrial belt and a semi-urban area.There are 2.46 lakh voters. The dominant social groups are the Kshatriyas, Patels and OBCs are dominant social groups. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Log Party are also contesting.About 60 per cent of the population in the constituency is into farming and 40 per cent in the industrial sector.Narayan Patel, Vaghodia taluka Congress president, said there is unrest among the poor over price rise and GST on basic items like milk and this will reflect in voting.There are 10 Assembly seats in Vadodara district - Vaghodia, Savli, Karjan, Padra, Dabhoi (all rural areas), Raopura, Sayajiganj, Majalpur, Akota and Vadodara City (all urban segments).PromotedListen to the latest songs, only on JioSaavn.comExcept Padra, all seats are with the BJP.(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)Featured Video Of The DayOn Shraddha Walkar's 2020 Letter, BJP's "Appeasement" Charge In Maharashtra
